Opinion on the Endorsement of the Economic Development Scenario

• The National Audit Office, implementing the function of the fiscal institution, endorses the December Economic Development Scenario for 2024–2027 published by the Ministry of Finance.
• In 2025, stronger exports and accelerating domestic demand are projected to boost Lithuania's economic expansion more than in 2024.
• With EU support funds flows expected to peak in 2025, a recovery in both public and private investment is expected.
• With wages rising faster than prices, private consumption is projected to continue growing in the medium term.
• The greatest adverse impact on the development of Lithuania’s economy could be caused by risks related to the geopolitical environment and international trade conditions.

The National Audit Office, implementing the function of the fiscal institution, has assessed and endorses the Economic Development Scenario for 2024–2027 published by the Ministry of Finance on 20 December. It is consistent with the assumptions identified and is based on relevant statistical data. Both institutions‘ views on the Lithuanian economic outlook are similar.
  
"We expect the economy to have grown by 2.4% in 2024, and so do most other institutions. We forecast that real GDP growth will accelerate to 3% in 2025. The main contributions to this development will come from stronger export growth, driven by recovering external demand, and investment, supported by EU funds flows. Household consumption will continue to be boosted by the strengthening purchasing power of the population. However, geopolitical situation and international trade remain the main risks to Lithuania's economic development," said Jurga Rukšėnaitė, Head of the Budget Monitoring Department.
  
Over the period 2026–2027, Lithuania's economic growth is projected to be slightly faster than in 2025, as the recovery in export markets continues. The labour market situation will remain stable, with unemployment falling steadily and average wages continuing to grow, albeit at a slower pace than in 2025. Consumer price inflation, which is expected to be below 1% in 2024, is projected to exceed 2% in the medium term. It will be driven mainly by rising prices of services.
 
Increased geopolitical tensions could have a negative impact on global economies. Escalating geopolitical conflicts affect commodity prices. Rising prices could not only fuel inflation in Lithuania, but also increase production costs, especially in energy-intensive industries. Slower growth in the economies of major trading partners could have a negative impact on the country's exports and economic development. However, an improved labour market situation, faster investment expansion, and higher household consumption influenced by changes in personal savings could lead to more favourable economic developments.
  
The Opinion on the Endorsement of the Economic Development Scenario, the macroeconomic forecasts of the National Audit Office, implementing the function of the fiscal institution and other annexes are available here:

Opinion on the Endorsement of the Economic Development Scenario