2026-07-02
- At the end of 2025, state reserves stood at EUR 6.03 billion, having increased by 24.6 percent over the year.
- More than 75 percent of the total growth in reserves was attributable to the increase in the SODRA reserve, but this growth does not in itself imply a reduction in long-term risks.
- The accumulation of reserves by the state is not based on a clear strategic assessment – it has not been determined what level of reserves is sufficient, what risks they are intended to mitigate, or how they should be formed in the long term.
- The Ministry of Finance, in implementing the National Audit Office’s recommendation, is developing a comprehensive model for the formation and management of state reserves.
At the end of 2025, the Reserve (Stabilisation) Fund, the State Social Insurance Fund (SODRA) and the Compulsory Health Insurance Fund (PSDF) had accumulated reserves totalling EUR 6.03 billion. Over the course of the year, the total amount of state reserves increased by 24.6 percent, or EUR 1.19 billion. However, as the National Audit Office points out, the accumulation of state reserves is not based on a clear strategic assessment – it has not been determined what level of reserves is sufficient, which risks they are intended to mitigate, or how they should be formed in the long term.
“State reserves are an important tool for financial resilience, so it is essential to clearly define the risks they are intended to mitigate, the appropriate level required, and how they should be utilised during a crisis. With growing geopolitical, economic and demographic challenges, the management of reserves must be based on clear principles and long-term planning,” says Auditor General Irena Segalovičienė.
The SODRA reserve accounts for the largest share of the reserves
At the end of 2025, the SODRA reserve stood at EUR 4,515.1 million. Over the course of the year, it increased by EUR 897 million, accounting for more than 75 percent of the total growth in state reserves. At the end of the year, the PSDF reserve stood at EUR 723.7 million, while the Reserve (Stabilisation) Fund stood at EUR 791 million, of which EUR 119.5 million is earmarked for radioactive waste management and the construction of a deep geological repository.
In the coming years, the SODRA reserve will be supplemented by both contributions received by SODRA from second-pillar pension funds and contributions from the state budget. In the first quarter of 2026 alone, around EUR 1.3 billion was transferred to SODRA. It is important to emphasise that this does not constitute additional revenue, but rather long-term state commitments.
In the National Audit Office’s view, the increased reserve should not be used to take on new permanent commitments, including further pension increases or other decisions that would increase state expenditure in the future, unless sustainable sources of revenue are in place to fund them.
Reserves must also be assessed in the light of long-term demographic changes. It is forecast that by 2050 there will be only two people of working age for every elderly person, whereas in 2025 there were more than three. An analysis carried out by the National Audit Office, as an independent fiscal institution, shows that, if policy on the impact of an ageing population remains unchanged, the SODRA reserve would be exhausted even before 2050.
To achieve long-term and high-quality management of state reserves – a recommendation from the National Audit Office
Reserves are accumulated to ensure the state’s financial stability and its ability to meet its obligations during economic or other shocks.
In the National Audit Office’s view, given the increasing geopolitical, economic and fiscal risks, reserves must be planned systematically, based on risk analysis, clear sources of funding, priorities for their use and general management principles. This is particularly important in the context of an ageing population and growing long-term liabilities of the social security system.
With a view to strengthening the state’s financial resilience, the National Audit Office recommended last year that the Ministry of Finance systematically review the legal framework governing reserves and establish general principles for their creation and management, linking them to the state’s borrowing policy.
In response to the National Audit Office’s recommendation, the Ministry of Finance is developing a systematic model for the formation and management of the country’s reserves. The Ministry has now analysed international practice, is assessing the situation in Lithuania and is preparing proposals for a general model for the formation and management of reserves. The recommendation is planned to be implemented by the end of 2026.
Once the recommendation has been implemented, the state will have a comprehensive model for the formation and management of reserves, which will enable reserves to be planned on the basis of risk assessment, their purpose to be defined more clearly, and reserve policy to be linked to the state’s borrowing decisions.