2026-01-30
The first estimate of Lithuania's real GDP for 2025, published today, is slightly better than the September forecast by the National Audit Office, as the independent fiscal institution. It was projected that GDP would grow by 2.7% in 2025, with economic growth mainly driven by household consumption, recovering investment, and faster exports than in 2024.
The first estimate of GDP for 2025 published by the State Data Agency shows that real GDP grew by 2.8% compared to 2024. The performance of service, industrial, and agricultural companies had the greatest positive impact on economic growth.
“When assessing 2025, we see that Lithuanian business has withstood geopolitical tensions and the uncertainty caused by US customs tariffs. However, structural challenges in the eurozone remain and may affect our export potential in the medium term. In such circumstances, domestic consumption will be an important buffer for the country's economic growth," says Auditor General Irena Segalovičienė.
Today, we see that after a sluggish 3rd quarter, annual economic growth exceeded expectations in the 4th quarter, reaching 3.1%. This was mainly driven by the results of manufacturing and retail trade activities.
After a decline in the 2nd and 3rd quarters, manufacturing recovered at the end of the year, which is likely to stimulate the growth of exports of goods of Lithuanian origin in the near future. Despite increased excise duties on fuel, retail trade continues to grow, driven by household disposable income, which is growing faster than prices. Private consumption will be one of the most important factors determining economic growth this year.
"We project that the country's economy will grow unevenly in the medium term. Changes in the II pension pillar will significantly boost household consumption in 2026. This, together with VAT changes, will lead to faster inflation. Once the one-off surge in consumption subsides, economic growth will slow significantly in 2027," says Jurga Rukšėnaitė, Head of the Budget Monitoring Department at the National Audit Office.
The independent fiscal institution will publish its forecasts for GDP and other macroeconomic indicators for 2026–2029 in March, together with its opinion on the Economic Development Scenario prepared by the Ministry of Finance.