2025-03-27
[Part I] – children and young people
Forecasts are tricky, especially in these unpredictable and uncertain times. It is difficult to foresee what will happen tomorrow, a week from now, a month or a year from now, let alone in 2050.
However, demographic processes are slow-moving phenomena, and their dynamics in the coming decades will largely be determined by the structure of the population that has already emerged. The rapid ageing of Lithuania's population is reflected in the rise in the median age from 32 to 44 years between 1990 and 2024.
AUTHOR
Mindaugas Macijauskas
Auditor General
e-mail: [email protected]
Since Lithuania’s independence, the population has fallen by almost 22%, the working-age population has fallen by 24% and the elderly population has increased.
Significant population growth in the future is difficult to expect, not only because of low birth rates (the number of children per woman of childbearing age has fallen to 1.18 in 2023), but also because of the decline in the number of women of child-bearing age (aged 15-49 years).
Although net migration is projected to remain positive in the long term, Lithuania's population is projected to decline and could reach around 2.6 million in 2050, 300 000 fewer than today.
Today, there are 377 000 children and young people aged 7-19 in Lithuania. In 2024, there were 915 general education schools in the country, with 348 000 pupils.
In just 8 years (2033), the number will be 56,000 fewer, in 2040 - 102,000 fewer, and in 2050 - 224,000 fewer, i.e. 40% less than in 2025.
With a steady decline in the number of pupils, we will be forced to undertake an even more rapid and drastic review of the school network - looking for alternative forms of education to ensure high-quality education. We already have to decide what to do with school buildings, whether to sell them or to change their use.
With fewer pupils, there will be an opportunity to give more attention to each pupil. Individualised education, based on the needs and abilities of pupils, could be a priority.
Digitalisation and distance education will undoubtedly become an important factor, and we need to invest in digital infrastructure, digital skills for teachers and quality content for distance education.
Artificial intelligence and its application in education will also have an impact on the educational process, both in terms of tailoring content to individual needs and making it more engaging. This is already happening, and we need to enable teachers and students to acquire the necessary competences to use AI tools effectively, to foster creativity and critical thinking, and to ensure the responsible and ethical use of these technologies in education.
The report "Reimagining our futures together - a new social contract for education", prepared by UNESCO's international education experts, highlights that education should develop along the following lines:
- Cooperation and solidarity: promoting community, social justice and inclusion for sustainable society.
- Environmental sustainability: integrating environmental education, developing environmental responsibility and adressing climate change.
- Technology integration: using digital tools in teaching, while also ensuring that technology enhances humanistic values and critical thinking.
- Lifelong learning: developing systems that promote continuous learning, adaptation to the changing labour market and personal development.
- Transforming pedagogy: moving away from the traditional transmission of knowledge towards the development of creative and critical thinking, with an emphasis on experiential learning and problem solving.
While future forecasts pose serious challenges, they also provide opportunities to prepare in advance for inevitable changes. Bold decisions need to be taken now if Lithuania's education system is to remain sustainable and provide quality education in a context of declining enrolment.
Only a responsible and forward-looking approach will lead to an education system that is ready not only to adapt to changing demographic realities, but also to become a model for other countries in terms of how to educate the creative, critical and socially responsible generations of tomorrow.